Republicans will win a “significant majority” in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten, on “The Lead.”
“If you’re a GOP member running for re-election or trying to beat a Democrat, everything looks pretty great, right?” Anchor Jake Tapper asked.
“I believe they’re in really good shape from a historical standpoint,” Enten replied. “In other words, I took the best Republican stances on the generic ballot at this time in midterm cycles going back to 1938 — the generic ballot is essentially, ‘Would you vote for a generic GOPer or generic Democrat?’ And since 1938, the GOP’s two-point lead on this generic congressional ballot has been its best position early in any midterm cycle in over 80 years. It’s better than 2010, when the Republicans had a point lead. It outperforms 2014, 2002, 1998, and all of those four prior situations where the Democrats led by a point. Who won the majority in all of them? The Republicans did.”
“The election isn’t being held tomorrow, of course, and we’ll see. History is not always prologue; nevertheless, if the election were done today, my forecast for the 2023 House makeup is Republicans would get 236 seats to 241 seats. Democrats would have 194 to 199 seats. This prediction is based on seat-by-seat ratings from Inside Elections and The Cook Political Report,’” he said.
According to a new poll from CNN, President Joe Biden’s approval numbers have dipped among independents, with 51% of them now saying they approve of the job he’s doing, compared to 56% who said they approved in April. The dip comes as the White House is facing criticism from both sides of the aisle over its handling of inflation among other issues.
Rumors have circulated on if Biden will seek a second term, but he has not yet said if he plans to run again in 2024.
“As of right now, I would say that the chances are probably less than 50-50 that Biden runs for reelection,” Enten said. “I think a lot of it just has to do with his age. He’ll be 82 years old on Inauguration Day 2025. The oldest person ever elected to a first term as president was Ronald Reagan, and he was just a couple of months shy of his 78th birthday. So, you know, history is against Biden here.”